tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5406957897990753480.comments2023-05-20T22:52:15.278+12:00Oil Shock Horror ProbeDenis Tegghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08786000866647551189noreply@blogger.comBlogger127125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5406957897990753480.post-74347376729173251262013-08-30T20:27:06.924+12:002013-08-30T20:27:06.924+12:00Hi
Thanks for this; this is exactly why I now deci...Hi<br />Thanks for this; this is exactly why I now decided to write a whole book on this topic; <br />REgards<br />Susanne BeckenAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5406957897990753480.post-41822179666125815722013-01-12T00:18:21.036+13:002013-01-12T00:18:21.036+13:00Thank you for writing this, its an excellent resou...Thank you for writing this, its an excellent resource and I've bookmarked your blog for future reference. Keep it up please!Temo Ozlumhttp://kiwisubmitters.blogspot.co.nznoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5406957897990753480.post-79017154173487852282012-10-23T20:02:13.933+13:002012-10-23T20:02:13.933+13:00Nice work. The one glimmer of hope is our abundant...Nice work. The one glimmer of hope is our abundant resource of renewably generated electrons, offset of course by the extraordinary bunch of clowns running the show wasting our last credit lines on vast motorways instead of reorienting the transport sector urgently towards electrification. See here for just how much this is a transport issue first and foremost. Farming and forestry use relatively little of that imported oil:<br />http://transportblog.co.nz/?s=oil+strike&submit.x=16&submit.y=8&submit=Search<br />Patrick Reynoldshttp://transportblog.co.nznoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5406957897990753480.post-28024549314072494702012-07-28T23:20:16.200+12:002012-07-28T23:20:16.200+12:00Listen to this interview by Kathryn Ryan on Radio ...Listen to this interview by Kathryn Ryan on Radio NZ National on the 25th of May 2011 with Fatih Birol the Chief Economist at the International Energy Agency. 'the most credible authority on energy issues' ( Ministry of Energy ) : <br />http://podcast.radionz.co.nz/ntn/ntn-20110525-0922-is_the_age_of_cheap_oil_is_over-00.oggAlan Prestonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10666177571975961530noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5406957897990753480.post-70904557053502248202012-06-30T07:04:56.904+12:002012-06-30T07:04:56.904+12:00it is very nice to know that kind of topic.... i...it is very nice to know that kind of topic.... it interest me a lot to read... thanks for sharing it to us..<br /><br /><a href="http://flogistix.com/" rel="nofollow">wellhead compressor</a>Flogistixhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11393574053005122024noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5406957897990753480.post-62599964782595900462012-05-11T17:15:43.685+12:002012-05-11T17:15:43.685+12:00Thank you for always going in behind the official ...Thank you for always going in behind the official comments!David Welchhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11986414622432134057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5406957897990753480.post-79280067666349718212012-03-05T21:16:09.579+13:002012-03-05T21:16:09.579+13:00answers do not lie in converting lignite to liquid...answers do not lie in converting lignite to liquid fuels, nor selling rights to oil *exploration* companies. Offshore geology is not favourable for economic large scale extraction, otherwise, where would you think the big oil extraction and *supply* companies would rather be? We're putting a hell of alot of faith in business as usual activities rather than investing in the sustainable efforts we will have no choice but to take up in the future anyway. Sweet-talking Warner bros executives, bailing out finance companies to the tune of billions? Investing in our own long term autonomy? I know what I choose. AzeoAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5406957897990753480.post-55234074390572594922012-03-02T17:28:17.190+13:002012-03-02T17:28:17.190+13:00you picked on the wrong point, it wasn't said ...you picked on the wrong point, it wasn't said at all that wind would replace fossil fuel, the point was that people (and government)expect business as usual, but aren't prepared to engage in the solutions - whatever they are, and we all know it will be a *range* of solutions required - AzeoAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5406957897990753480.post-69121526534622453812012-02-19T16:18:17.428+13:002012-02-19T16:18:17.428+13:00Alan the link seems to be working OK now ?Alan the link seems to be working OK now ?Denis Tegghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08786000866647551189noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5406957897990753480.post-78039186849821955762012-02-19T15:57:45.637+13:002012-02-19T15:57:45.637+13:00Thanks Denis. The link on National Radio's Mor...Thanks Denis. The link on National Radio's Morning Report page was dead: Here's where you can listen to the audio: http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/morningreport/audio/2508971/major-potential-seen-for-oil-industryAlan Prestonhttp://www.thewayforward2011.org.nznoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5406957897990753480.post-79086442231188035582012-02-13T23:14:22.246+13:002012-02-13T23:14:22.246+13:00Thanks,
A telling post.Thanks, <br />A telling post.Paulnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5406957897990753480.post-24394708106845270252012-02-13T13:52:51.698+13:002012-02-13T13:52:51.698+13:00Much the same story as this piece of fiction: http...Much the same story as this piece of fiction: http://www.med.govt.nz/sectors-industries/energy/energy-modelling/modelling/new-zealands-energy-outlook <br /><br />The just released 2011 energy outlook includes such gems as:<br />- Pg 2: "Primary Fossil Fuel Supply by Fuel Type" chart showing fossil fuel energy consumption steadily increasing.<br />- Pg 2, Para 3: "Over this<br />time economic growth is forecast to average 2% per annum, with growth focused on the less-energy-intensive commercial sector. At the same time consumer energy demand grows at less than 1% per annum." <br />- Pg 3, Para 4: "Transport remains the key challenge in New Zealand’s bid to reduce energy sector greenhouse gas emissions. As emissions from other sectors remain flat or decline, transport increases its share of total emissions to nearly 50% by 2030."<br />Etc, etc. <br /><br />How can they possibly come to these conclusions?travelling_without_movingnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5406957897990753480.post-56115107575938743152012-01-30T13:45:14.489+13:002012-01-30T13:45:14.489+13:00(Sorry Rob - my response was a Grey Moment!)(Sorry Rob - my response was a Grey Moment!)Nigel Williamsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5406957897990753480.post-12998963730694046282012-01-27T20:14:30.559+13:002012-01-27T20:14:30.559+13:00Nigel, did my post accidently convey the impressio...Nigel, did my post accidently convey the impression that I believe the Government has a solution? If so, sorry about that. Next time I will try to make my sarcasm more apparent.<br /><br />RobGeorgecomhttp://www.octobersunincuba.wordpress.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5406957897990753480.post-15810711312916546992012-01-26T22:17:10.664+13:002012-01-26T22:17:10.664+13:00Not so bright, George! The 90-days worth is held ...Not so bright, George! The 90-days worth is held in tanks far offshore as part of the IEA's strategic reserve. The strategic reserve is then released to ease temporary shortfalls between global supply and demand. Last time was when they were getting rid of Colonel G, and the reserve has not been replenished.<br /><br />In a real collapse of our supply we would not see any of it, as its sold onto the market in the same way as any other oil. At the time we arent getting any of the global production we sure wont get a few trawler-loads of drums from 'our' tanks in Holland!Nigel Williamshttp://the100metreline.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5406957897990753480.post-47299936904049044272012-01-25T21:07:51.565+13:002012-01-25T21:07:51.565+13:00Looking on the bright side, NZ holds 'at least...Looking on the bright side, NZ holds 'at least 90 days of net imports' worth of oil. Phew! Peak oil panic over, the Governments got it all in hand. What with 5% of our vehicle fleet expected to be electric powered by 2020 we may not even need the 90 days oil reserve. <br /><br />By the way, what proportion of the $1.6 billion 0.6 BCR Puhoi Highway spend does either a $36 million biodiesel fund or $25 million seismic mapping spend amount to? Probably about the annual GDP growth rate the Government is achieving.Georgecomhttp://www.octobersunincuba.wordpress.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5406957897990753480.post-49624596432423460612012-01-24T22:16:49.645+13:002012-01-24T22:16:49.645+13:00I recently asked all the NZ Refineries oil compani...I recently asked all the NZ Refineries oil companies plus Gull:<br /><br />In the face of a shortfall of oil supply vs demand, "What method will your company use to allocate declining fuel supplies to New Zealand?" <br /><br />Only Gull, Caltex (Chevron) and BP were kind enough to reply.<br /><br />From Gull: (A full and kindly response, of which the main points were:)<br />"...The short answer is : The market will decide<br /> <br />The medium answer is : If you are correct and the price of oil increases significantly then this will do stifle demand from many economies. It will also make (currently) expensive types of oil ( deep water, bio fuels) more viable to produce so supply will increase. For the foreseeable future of my lifetime I believe you will always be able to buy “oil” it just may be very expensive and/ or look different ( a biofuel) . The oil will go to the highest bidder as it does now. Those not prepared to pay the price will make other arrangements. ..."<br /><br />When I pressed as to whether they actually had any standard procedures he replied:<br /><br />"...correct we don’t have that part of a procedures manual<br /> <br />NZ will get what it is prepared to pay for … "<br /><br />Chevron (Caltex):<br /><br />"...Our view is that there will continue to be adequate oil supplies in the medium term. ...<br /><br />"...However, hypothetically for the sake of your paper, we could potentially expect regional allocations of fuel in the unlikely and far-distant chance of shortages. Chevron has declared the Asia Pacific Region (which includes New Zealand) a strategic priority, along with the Americas. The company is reducing its retail footprint in other markets around the world. On that basis, we could assume Chevron-controlled supply would favour this region. Hypothetically, we could expect to see buying conducted on a basis similar to “co-ordination”, with company buyers balancing the needs of the markets they are buying for over several days or weeks, depending on what stocks are already sitting in each country (ie. moving more to just-in-time)."<br /><br />"In summary Nigel, we think the timeframe for potential energy shortages is much longer than your estimate; that price will settle the supply-demand issue; and that there is much work being done around finding alternative energy supply, both in New Zealand and globally. We therefore do not agree that New Zealand is likely to be disadvantaged in energy supply in the foreseeable future."<br /><br />and BP (in full):<br />"Thanks for you query. The best source of information for your request <br />is the BP Statistical Review and BP Energy Outlook. You can find both of these reports at www.bp.com.<br /><br />From these reports you'll see that BP do not foresee a shortage of oil which would impact on New Zealand."<br /><br />--<br />My feeling from these responses is that an oil supply disruption from the closure of the Straights of Hormuz (or from any other reasonably foreseeable cause) is unlikely to give rise to any sensible coordinated response should one third of the global oil supply be withheld at the whim of some madmen. (Whether those madmen may be found in Washington, the capitals of Europe or in Tehran is a separate issue!)<br /><br />So essentially New Zealand's fuel security underpants are around its ankles, and when push comes to shove in the global oil market we will be the first to fall on our faces. And serve us right!<br /><br />Were it not for my anxiety about the future of my children and my children's children my anger could be turned to jest. But instead the helpless anger seethes, and the food planting programme continues apace.Nigel Williamshttp://the100metreline.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5406957897990753480.post-90155517448374112632012-01-24T21:52:23.912+13:002012-01-24T21:52:23.912+13:00Alan. Dont feel left out! A letter I received fr...Alan. Dont feel left out! A letter I received from Jerry Brownlee in 2009 had a similarly myopic tone.<br /><br />Firstly I asked about Big Oil's pull out from the retail market in NZ then about our oil security. His reply was:<br /><br />---<br />Office of Hon Gerry Brownlee<br />MP for Ilam<br />Minister for Economic Development Leader of the House<br />Minister of Energy and Resources Associate Minister for the Rugby World Cup<br /><br />ERGB 09-10/0205<br /><br />14 SEP 2009 <br /><br />Dear Mr Williams<br /><br />Thank you for your email of 28 July <br /><br />(1) Firstly, I would like to note that only Shell has publicly announced that they are looking for buyers for their downstream assets (including their stake in New Zealand Refining Company (NZRC)). There have been persistent press reports that ExxonMobil (Mobil) has also sought buyers for all its New Zealand downstream assets but no public announcement that I am aware of. The two other big oil companies in New Zealand BP and Chevron (Caltex) have not made any announcements that they plan to sell their downstream assets in new Zealand.<br /><br />(2) While press reports have put forward a number of companies as potentially interested buyers, I am unwilling to speculate on what effect (if any) this may have on the market until a sale has been confirmed.<br /><br />(3) I can however comment on the operations of new Zealand’s sole refinery at Marsden Point refinery. Your letter refers to the risks that oil produced from the refinery could be used for export, rather than to supply New Zealand. I consider this a relatively small risk as the Marsden Point Refinery only supplies a portion (over 80%) of New Zealand’s total oil product demand. Given New Zealand’s distance from other markets, it will be more economic o use the refinery to supply domestic demand rather than to export.<br /><br />(4) Secondly, it is worth noting that the government is very interested in the security of New Zealand’s fuel supply.<br /><br />(5) New Zealand has a number of short-term measures in place if an oil-related emergency happened. As you are probably aware New Zealand is a member of the International Energy Agency (IEA). As a member of the IEA, New Zealand is required to hold at least 90 days of net imports. New Zealand meets this obligation in part by holding “ticket” contracts, which provide the Government with an option to purchase petroleum (at market prices) in the event of an IEA-declared emergency. The Ministry of Economic Development (MED) has also prepared and implemented an Oil Emergency Response Strategy for New Zealand. The can be found at http://www.med.govt.nz/oers <br /><br />(6) The government has also developed a number of national policy initiatives to reduce our reliance on international oil product. These include $25 million over three years being allocated to the renewed seismic data acquisition programme to encourage oil and gas exploration in New Zealand, $36 million over three years being allocated to a biodiesel grant scheme and electric vehicles being exempt from road user charges until 2013.<br /><br />Thank you for your interest in this topic.<br /><br />Yours sincerely <br /><br />Hon Gerry Brownlee<br />Minister of Energy and Resources.<br /><br />---<br />Hardly enough to save the day eh!?Nigel Williamshttp://the100metreline.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5406957897990753480.post-60660011780223577672012-01-22T12:15:28.318+13:002012-01-22T12:15:28.318+13:00Back in June 2011 I asked the (acting) Minister of...Back in June 2011 I asked the (acting) Minister of Energy whether they were are aware of the IEA's warnings re-peak oil and asked what plans they had to respond accordingly. <br /><br />Although the Minister didn't admit it , her letter shows that she was oblivious. <br />https://sites.google.com/site/saveourrailnorthland/home/why-bother/peak-oil/minister-of-energy-s-responseAlan Prestonhttp://www.saveourrailnorthland.org.nznoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5406957897990753480.post-25803319666570905052012-01-12T05:55:57.402+13:002012-01-12T05:55:57.402+13:00So much wishful thinking. I believe as many observ...So much wishful thinking. I believe as many observers do that our lives over the next 20 years are going to be nothing like the lives we've lived the past 20 years. We need to get reconciled with the reality of a future without cheap oil. <br /><br /> For starters, we will not have access to the transportation infrastructure that cheap oil provided us nor any of the products it now delivers to us. <br /><br /> New ideas are great, but most require either a change in public behaviour, or 10 to 20 years to implement neither of which we have - we won't even have the capital to get the big-ticket items started. <br /><br /> But Russell B. your bike and vege garden put you streets ahead of your fellow citizens who would rather live in denial.Deckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07169569885148197918noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5406957897990753480.post-76091813843025245832012-01-11T11:16:03.602+13:002012-01-11T11:16:03.602+13:00Add in a bit of climate change and dwindling middl...Add in a bit of climate change and dwindling middle eastern water supplies, one item in our interim favour could be (double?) bladders inside the oil tankers so that we could trade oil for our excesses of clean water. The tankers off-load oil at Marsden Point then head to Fiordland to fill up with water from the Manapouri tail race / tunnel. Part of the domestic increase in oil in the middle east is to power their increasingly large desalination plants.<br />But let's start today with mass electrification of our transport; buses, rail freight & commuter, etc and reinforcing our national grid before (embodied energy) construction projects escalate in line with increasing oil prices.<br />My electric assit bicycle has worked very well over the last 18 months. Now for the roof top vege garden ...Russell Bnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5406957897990753480.post-82712744915167456652012-01-07T05:15:25.459+13:002012-01-07T05:15:25.459+13:00Its funny how the big organizations in this world ...Its funny how the big organizations in this world cannot be trusted when it comes to oil. The IEA and the American EIA are never talking depletion or peak, its always prices, suply and demand.<br /><br />I live on the other side of the globe from NZ, in Norway, and we have a publicly announcements on oil and gas production every month. Heres for November: <br /><br />http://www.npd.no/en/news/Production-figures/2011/November-2011/<br /><br />Saudi Arabia is hiding their information for a reason, and that is because they are at the brink of depletion, and they are basically desperate to keep the production up (they now drill off shore).<br /><br />Norway peaked at 3.2 mbbl/day in 2001, while we now are at around 2 mbbl/day.<br /><br />Every country will have this rise and decline, and SA is at the peak as we speak. So when will they decline? Considering they have huge oil fields, they can have a plateau lasting quite a while, so its hard to say. Maybe 2015?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5406957897990753480.post-90844220955746587322011-12-30T11:57:16.288+13:002011-12-30T11:57:16.288+13:00"Petroplus Holdings AG may announce the halt ..."Petroplus Holdings AG may announce the halt of its five European refineries today because it can’t buy the crude it needs..." <br /><br />http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-28/petroplus-may-halt-european-refineries-on-credit-freeze-french-union-says.html<br /><br />"The French refinery has been operating at lower production rates than normal because of weakening refining margins..."<br /><br />So:<br /><br />The consumer will only pay so much for petrol and diesel, and crude is costing more. The production cost margins are too small. So production of refined product stops. <br /><br />Another link in the supply chain breaks, the economy weakens further, with less to spend the consumer can only afford to pay even less, and around and down the supply-demand-collapse spiral it goes again.<br /><br />This is not the only example, but that its happening in a country like France (which is the worlds 7th biggest oil importer) is telling.<br /><br />I wonder how Marsden Point's margins are looking?Nigel Williamsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5406957897990753480.post-31953898214482070452011-12-19T11:47:22.768+13:002011-12-19T11:47:22.768+13:00Yes, Even IF.
Even IF oil is discovered here in...Yes, Even IF. <br /><br />Even IF oil is discovered here in useful quantities that can be developed for the going price, then it is very unlikely that it will be brought ashore in 44 gallon drums tied to the outrigger of a waka and distributed locally for the benefit of we the citizens of Aotearoa.<br /><br />It will simply add to the relevant multi-national oil operator's global production. We will not get any, even if we are starving for itNigwilhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16979413666054076403noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5406957897990753480.post-84636544032372244152011-12-15T13:33:27.662+13:002011-12-15T13:33:27.662+13:00Forgive me Denis, but I really enjoy watching you ...Forgive me Denis, but I really enjoy watching you work. <br /> - DeckDeckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07169569885148197918noreply@blogger.com