New Zealand Government’s Response to Peak Oil – In time we hope something will turn up

On July 8 I attended a forum on peak oil organised by the Sustainability Society. Dr Richard Hawke from the Ministry of Economic Development gave a presentation  on behalf of the New Zealand government entitled "Peak Oil - New Zealand's Response". I came away with emotions ranging from frustration to anger and embarrassment.

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Even more pain at the pump this year

I am usually loathe to predict what oil prices will do, certainly in the long term. As Yogi Berra famously said "it's hard to make predictions, especially about the future". But some pretty compelling evidence suggests another substantial upward tick in the oil price is coming in the second half of this year - on top of the already damaging current oil price shock.

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Oil Shock Horror blog -- the story thus far

9 months after a tentative start last September, and with 45 posts clocked up here at Oil Shock Horror Probe, I thought it was time to re-cap. What are the trends and themes that have emerged so far?

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2007-08 oil shock caused "substantial" decline in New Zealand's GDP say Reserve Bank economists

In a recent report, two New Zealand Reserve Bank economists have estimated the real effects of oil price shocks on New Zealand’s GDP. The economists conclude --

1. a 5% permanent increase in retail fuel prices implies a decline in NZ's GDP of 0.3%
2. a succession of oil price shocks such as those in 2007-08 had "a substantial effect on real GDP in New Zealand"
3. New Zealand's oil use is different, leaving us more vulnerable to oil shocks. Faced with oil shocks New Zealand households and firms have only one third of the ability to lower the amount of oil they consume, compared with the United States.
4. real wages decline in response to an oil shock, as they are eroded by inflation.

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UK Ignores Peak Oil Warnings - NZ Pretends It's Not An Issue

It has long been suspected that Western governments have been investigating peak oil and its impacts on the economy, but keeping the information hidden from the public. In the case of the UK government we now have definitive proof that this has been happening. The Guardian has reported (15 June) that UK ministers have ignored peak oil warnings.

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UK Government to Develop Oil Shock Response Plan - When Will NZ ?

UK Energy and Climate Change Secretary Chris Huhne has agreed to develop an 'Oil Shock Response Plan', following a meeting with the UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security (ITPOES).

Specifically, Huhne agreed that the UK government and ITPOES would work together on peak oil threat assessment and contingency planning.

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Staring down the barrel of oil shortages - but seeing nothing

Business writer Rod Oram and Transport Minister Steven Joyce have been debating the government's current and potential roading and rail projects ( Sunday Star Times) The essence of their spat seems to be "my cost benefit analysis is bigger and better than yours - nah nah na nah na".

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NZ Defence Report Ignores Peak Oil - US / German Military Warn it’s a Big Threat

The just released Defence White Paper on New Zealand's strategic and security interests to 2025, as Gordon Campbell points out, is long on rhetoric, and short on coherence and detail.  But worse still it fails to even mention a very serious and imminent threat to our security which both the US and German military have warned about - namely the peaking of global oil production leading to dwindling world oil supplies.

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NZ Hits Peak Oil in 2010. Zero oil production by 2023 -- MED official

This year NZ reaches peak oil.  We then face a steep decline in our domestic oil production from currently producing oilfields. This is a double jeopardy for New Zealand's economy as the domestic decline will coincide with global oil supply shocks, rapidly rising oil prices, ushering in a period of sustained recessions - according to a New Zealand Parliament report published last month.

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Mining group believes in tooth fairy -- "New Zealand cushioned against oil shocks"

Straterra, a body representing mining companies has said, "New Zealand is in an excellent position to withstand any future oil shocks, thanks in particular to our lignite and geothermal resources". Straterra was commenting on the Parliament's research unit report called "The Next Oil Shock".  The Report says major international organisations are warning of another supply crunch as soon as 2012.

What planet are these guys on ? Let's be clear -- geo-thermal energy produces electricity. It cannot power New Zealand's internal transport system - or carry our imports and exports -- 99% of which relies on liquid fuels. If our transport systems cannot run efficiently the economy heads south into recession.

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NZ Parliament Report Warns of Imminent Oil Shock

New Zealand is highly vulnerable to oil price shocks that are nearly certain to occur in the next few years according to a research report published by Parliament yesterday. Its an excellent report on peak oil and will be huge wake-up call for government and opposition MP's and their advisers.  It deserves the widest circulation.

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"Peak hype" on New Zealand's offshore oil reserves

There was much hype and hoopla at the recent New Zealand Petroleum Conference about the extent of New Zealand's potential oil and gas reserves. Chris Uruski, a GNS scientist told Chris Laidlaw on Radio NZ's Sunday that we potentially have 20 billion barrels of oil equivalent in New Zealand's offshore exclusive economic zone. He did however put something of a dampener on the excitement by stating "we haven't really got anything sorted on a scientific basis" as to the extent of our oil reserves.

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UK Govt Takes Peak Oil Threat Seriously, but NZ Govt Deep in Denial

The UK's Energy Secretary Chris Huhne has ordered his officials to look at the impact of a 1970s-style oil price spike on the British economy. Mr Huhne warned that a  1970s-style doubling in the price of oil would drain £45billion from the UK economy in two years, hitting investment and jobs. 

Meanwhile our Energy Minister Gerry Brownlee and the NZ government are deep in denial about peak oil and resulting higher oil prices.

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