Peak Oil’s Economic Pain Is Trumps

Oil’s tipping point has passed, and the economic pain of a flattening supply will trump the environment as a reason to curb the use of fossil fuels, say James Murray and David King, in an article just published in the prestigious journal Nature.

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Australian government tries to hide its own peak oil report

The Daily Telegraph has revealed how the Australian government has attempted to suppress its own report on peak oil. The response from the New Zealand government had been equally secretive and obfuscating.

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This does not compute

The International Energy Agency has again warned that the high oil price could strangle hopes for a global economic recovery. It also says that 90% of future growth in oil production has to come from the Mid-East, mostly from Saudi Arabia. Without a $100 billion annual investment in that region, oil prices will exceed $150 a barrel. But Saudi Arabia has just announced it is halting its $100 billion oil expansion program? This does not compute.

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Peak oil, recessions and the end of growth

On Tuesday I gave a presentation to Auckland University students on "Peak oil, recessions and the end of growth"

The event was organised by AIESEC , the world's largest youth run non profit organisation.

The powerpoint version is available here

to view the video on slide 24 see here

The .pdf version is here

Officials Muzzled on Peak Oil?

The government has finally released its Energy Strategy. There are cosmetic changes from the Draft version but it's no surprise that the final Strategy continues to completely ignore the threat of peak oil. 

There were many submissions, including my own, which detailed the raft of recent reports from oil and energy experts, think tanks and government institutions which are all pointing to an imminent supply and oil price crunch. And in 2009 government officials themselves gave strong warnings to Ministers. So since 2009, have the officials been muzzled?

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Public Receptive to Peak Oil Debate and Policy Ideas - Survey

It's a common misconception that only "greenies" and "doomsters" are concerned about peak oil. This view perhaps explains why politicians and the mainstream media have marginalised or ignored the issue. However a recent US survey of public opinion reveals that, in fact, those Americans who identify themselves as "very conservative" politically or who are "strongly dismissive" of climate change are among those most concerned that rising fuel prices are harmful to the economy and public health.

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New Zealand’s Tui Oil Field. - Peak Oil With Bells On

One of the least understood elements of peak oil is the rapid decline rate of production from the peak for any given oil field. For an example of just how severe and steep the decline rate can be, look no further than the recent announcement that the Tui oil field in the Taranaki Basin has had its remaining oil reserves slashed by 1/5, and that production will fall off a cliff. For a New Zealand oilfield, this is peak oil in action with bells on.

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New Zealand Government’s Response to Peak Oil – In time we hope something will turn up

On July 8 I attended a forum on peak oil organised by the Sustainability Society. Dr Richard Hawke from the Ministry of Economic Development gave a presentation  on behalf of the New Zealand government entitled "Peak Oil - New Zealand's Response". I came away with emotions ranging from frustration to anger and embarrassment.

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Infrastructure Plan wilfully oblivious of peak oil

The government's Infrastructure Plan is meant to map out a strategic direction for New Zealand infrastructure for the next 20 years. It fails miserably because it wilfully ignores peak oil.

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New Zealand Government's Oil Price Projections - A Bad Joke?

The Ministry of Economic Developments oil price estimates are a very bad joke. It is a joke on all of us however, as their grossly optimistic projections underpin government policy not just for energy but for the broader economy.

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UK Government to Develop Oil Shock Response Plan - When Will NZ ?

UK Energy and Climate Change Secretary Chris Huhne has agreed to develop an 'Oil Shock Response Plan', following a meeting with the UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security (ITPOES).

Specifically, Huhne agreed that the UK government and ITPOES would work together on peak oil threat assessment and contingency planning.

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Oil prices were rising steeply before the unrest in the Middle East

Here is the best analysis I have found about what’s been happening on the global oil scene.

It also confirms that peak oil pundits like Canadian economist Jeff Rubin, and Richard Heinberg and dozens of others, have been uncannily accurate.

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Ostrich-like Denial Continues

In August 2009 I wrote an opinion piece published in the New Zealand Herald - "Country Oblivious to Next Oil Shock". I opined that “the spike in oil prices to US$147 a barrel in 2008 helped trigger the global recession. And soon after a global economic recovery, the inevitable return to triple-digit oil prices will lead the world right back into recession.”
Back then the oil price was around US$70 a barrel – today Brent Crude is indeed over US $100 – in triple digit territory.

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NZ Survey - Elected Local Councillors Ill-informed on Peak Oil

Becky Wardell at the University of Canterbury has surveyed technical transport staff and elected officials in three representative local councils in New Zealand – (rural, a provincial city and Auckland) to determine what influences them and what their attitudes are to peak oil.

She found that the majority of elected officials had either minor or no concerns about peak oil and only 27% had a major level of concern about peak oil. The level of concern about peak oil amongst technical transport staff was much higher than elected officials, with 65% of them considering peak oil to be of major concern.

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NZ oil and gas in steep decline - Taranaki Report

Venture Taranaki have produced an immaculately presented report entitled "The Wealth Beneath Our Feet". The report is essentially a glossy public relations exercise of trying to talk up the contribution of the oil and gas industry to the local and New Zealand economy.

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Peak oil reported in mainstream NZ media -- a sea-change ?

Peak oil has been discussed in the mainstream New Zealand media in the past week. What is pleasing and maybe a sign of a sea-change is that unlike previous flirtations with the subject which have been disparaging and condescending, the latest articles take the issue seriously.

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10 reasons why converting lignite coal to diesel is insane

The Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment (PCE) has released a report "Lignite and climate change: The high cost of low grade coal"

The PCE report also covers using lignite to make urea and briquettes, but this post will focus on the insanity of plans by Solid Energy and L & M Group to convert Southland lignite to diesel

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Dunedin City Leads on Peak Oil

In a first for NZ, Dunedin City Council has commissioned a Peak Oil Vulnerability Analysis Report, which included surveys on travel habits, private fuel consumption and vehicle dependence and the effect of petrol prices . Appendices to the Report here

It assesses the city’s vulnerability to increased fuel prices and reduced availability of oil. It helps identify the associated challenges and opportunities for Dunedin’s communities.

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NZ Defence Report Ignores Peak Oil - US / German Military Warn it’s a Big Threat

The just released Defence White Paper on New Zealand's strategic and security interests to 2025, as Gordon Campbell points out, is long on rhetoric, and short on coherence and detail.  But worse still it fails to even mention a very serious and imminent threat to our security which both the US and German military have warned about - namely the peaking of global oil production leading to dwindling world oil supplies.

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NZ Hits Peak Oil in 2010. Zero oil production by 2023 -- MED official

This year NZ reaches peak oil.  We then face a steep decline in our domestic oil production from currently producing oilfields. This is a double jeopardy for New Zealand's economy as the domestic decline will coincide with global oil supply shocks, rapidly rising oil prices, ushering in a period of sustained recessions - according to a New Zealand Parliament report published last month.

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