Wednesday, November 2, 2011
In the year to September oil imports rose 22% to $7.7 billion. Oil is costing us $1.4 billion more than a year ago.
If this price trend continues then by 2015 our annual oil import bill will soar to $17 billion and will be $11 billion more than it was in 2010. That annual extra cost will be greater than the government's contribution to the Christchurch earthquake.
It gets worse.
Next decade an oil supply chasm
The current contribution to our balance of trade of $3 billion from domestic oil production is on a steep decline and will be almost zero by 2020. Assuming new oil is found (a big if) -- little new oil will flow until 2020 and most after 2030.
We are vulnerable to supply shocks
Our economy is more exposed to oil shocks
Our current low or no growth and high inflation is due to the 2007 -- 2008 and present oil price shocks
I have scoured the 2011 election media coverage for discussion of these issues by any of the leaders or candidates -- results -- zilch. Oh well never mind, we won the Rugby World Cup so no worries!