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Wednesday, November 2, 2011

Huge blowout in NZ oil import cost

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In the year to September oil imports rose 22% to $7.7 billion. Oil is costing us $1.4 billion more than a year ago.

If this price trend continues then by 2015 our annual oil import bill will soar to $17 billion and will be $11 billion more than it was in 2010. That annual extra cost will be greater than the government's contribution to the Christchurch earthquake.

It gets worse.

Next decade an oil supply chasm

The current contribution to our balance of trade of $3 billion from domestic oil production is on a steep decline and will be almost zero by 2020. Assuming new oil is found (a big if) -- little new oil will flow until 2020 and most after 2030.

We are vulnerable to supply shocks

Our economy is more exposed to oil shocks

Our current low or no growth and high inflation is due to the 2007 -- 2008 and present oil price shocks

I have scoured the 2011 election media coverage for discussion of these issues by any of the leaders or candidates -- results -- zilch.  Oh well never mind, we won the Rugby World Cup so no worries!


seemorerocks said...

Thanks for the fantastic research work!

Nigel W. said...

Nice one Denis! Another gust in the perfect storm for New Zealand isn't it?

If the discussions with the Club of Rome leave a sense of powerlessness, of our inability to save ourselves even knowing what is in store for us, then we have a hard hard row to hoe indeed.

Its just a bloody mess, and likely to get bloodier.

Keep up the great work!

Kind regards


Paul said...

The situation is extremely serious. Sprott's latest newsletter confirms this. Worth linking on your website.

Anonymous said...

I have been aware that oil supplies are depleting, hence the great interest in our waters currently. I believe it is time we looked to renewable resources & in fact am aware that there is already technology available that would enable us to stop sucking the earth of it's natural resources. However of course this is not favourable to those whose pockets have been lined from profits of oil. Many people are waking up to this, alongside those who don't want to see the reality. The earth herself is letting us know loud & clear currently that we need to change & grow if we are to remain on this planet. Great to raise awareness however I feel the dwindling oil resources are not the real problem, only an indication that it's time for us to wake up.

Anonymous said...

Well done Dennis! Thomas Coromandel

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