High oil prices cause "large" effect on inflation - NZ Report

A 2005 study by New Zealand Reserve Bank economist Felix Delbruck ("Oil prices and the New Zealand economy" - Reserve Bank of New Zealand: Bulletin, Vol. 68, No. 4) has found that the inflationary effects of higher oil prices were "quite large". Specifically that :-

• the direct impact of a $.10c a litre increase in petrol price lead to an immediate increase in the average household's living cost of about 0.3%
• the indirect effect (of higher bus, taxi, train and air travel, and firms passing on higher transport costs which raised the cost of food etc) added another 0.3% onto the direct effect -- a total 0.6% increase in the CPI for every $.10c a litre increase in fuel. 

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2007-08 oil shock caused "substantial" decline in New Zealand's GDP say Reserve Bank economists

In a recent report, two New Zealand Reserve Bank economists have estimated the real effects of oil price shocks on New Zealand’s GDP. The economists conclude --

1. a 5% permanent increase in retail fuel prices implies a decline in NZ's GDP of 0.3%
2. a succession of oil price shocks such as those in 2007-08 had "a substantial effect on real GDP in New Zealand"
3. New Zealand's oil use is different, leaving us more vulnerable to oil shocks. Faced with oil shocks New Zealand households and firms have only one third of the ability to lower the amount of oil they consume, compared with the United States.
4. real wages decline in response to an oil shock, as they are eroded by inflation.

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IMF Warns of Oil Scarcity And End of "Growth"

What is going on? The International Monetary Fund -- a body that states its mission is to "foster global growth and economic stability" has produced a major report which concludes the world has entered an era of oil scarcity, and openly discusses a peak oil scenario in which global GDP doesn't grow, but declines steeply !

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