Next oil induced recession -- are we there yet?

Research in the US confirms that there is a strong correlation between high oil prices and recessions. Recessions emerge when oil prices reach around $US85 a barrel (currently $US115 a barrel) or when the aggregate cost of oil for the nation equals 5.5% of GDP.

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Oil prices were rising steeply before the unrest in the Middle East

Here is the best analysis I have found about what’s been happening on the global oil scene.

It also confirms that peak oil pundits like Canadian economist Jeff Rubin, and Richard Heinberg and dozens of others, have been uncannily accurate.

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Starting to Join the Dots .... finally

Suddenly the world's media is awash with concern that the recent rise in oil prices will stall economic growth worldwide and cause another global recession. Guardian and here  BBC  Wall Street Journal

Finally, even in New Zealand, Brian Fallow economic commentator for the New Zealand Herald expresses concern about the implications for the New Zealand economy from rapidly rising oil prices.

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