Peak Oil’s Economic Pain Is Trumps

Oil’s tipping point has passed, and the economic pain of a flattening supply will trump the environment as a reason to curb the use of fossil fuels, say James Murray and David King, in an article just published in the prestigious journal Nature.

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NZ Election 2011 - Praying to the Growth Fairy

I had thought that my next post would be on the surreal lack of policy from any of the political parties in the Election addressing resource depletion and their collective failure to face the reality that "economic growth" is not returning.

Before I could get around to it I read this excellent post from James Henderson at "The Standard", and so I am re-posting it here. 

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Election 2011 Two-facedness - Saving money good - saving fuel bad

All of the political parties agree New Zealand needs a long-term savings and investment plan . These elections there have been major policy announcements on Kiwisaver, reducing debt and the age of eligibility for National Superannuation. Saving money good.

But when confronted with arguably a more serious and immediate threat to New Zealand's economy, national well-being and security -- namely our dangerous exposure to oil price shocks, and oil supply disruptions and shortages, - all the main parties fail to articulate a coherent long-term plan to lower our dependence on ever more expensive imported oil. Saving fuel bad.

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Huge blowout in NZ oil import cost

In the year to September oil imports rose 22% to $7.7 billion. Oil is costing us $1.4 billion more than a year ago.

If this price trend continues then by 2015 our annual oil import bill will soar to $17 billion and will be $11 billion more than it was in 2010. That annual extra cost will be greater than the government's contribution to the Christchurch earthquake.

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Officials Muzzled on Peak Oil?

The government has finally released its Energy Strategy. There are cosmetic changes from the Draft version but it's no surprise that the final Strategy continues to completely ignore the threat of peak oil. 

There were many submissions, including my own, which detailed the raft of recent reports from oil and energy experts, think tanks and government institutions which are all pointing to an imminent supply and oil price crunch. And in 2009 government officials themselves gave strong warnings to Ministers. So since 2009, have the officials been muzzled?

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Christchurch quake cost added to our yearly oil import bill?

By 2015 New Zealand could face an extra $10 billion cost each year to import oil, compared to 2011 prices. That's more than the cost to government of the Christchurch earthquake each and every year! By 2020 the oil import cost each year could soar to $19 billion more than the present cost. That's the bill for two Christchurch earthquakes every year.

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New Zealand at greater risk from oil shocks -- official advice ignored

In November 2009 senior officials warned the government --

• the risks of oil price shocks and a physical shortfall in the world supply are issues of "strategic importance"
• New Zealand is more vulnerable and may suffer more than other OECD economies
• new technologies and fuels will only "marginally" reduce New Zealand's vulnerability to these oil supply/price risks
• without "sufficient incentives" New Zealand's resilience will decrease even further
• a substantial increases in domestic oil production will not insulate New Zealand from higher oil prices because oil is traded internationally and we would still pay the international price.

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New Zealand Government’s Response to Peak Oil – In time we hope something will turn up

On July 8 I attended a forum on peak oil organised by the Sustainability Society. Dr Richard Hawke from the Ministry of Economic Development gave a presentation  on behalf of the New Zealand government entitled "Peak Oil - New Zealand's Response". I came away with emotions ranging from frustration to anger and embarrassment.

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New Zealand's oil security. How dependent are we on oil imports?

New Zealand imports 97% of its oil. Oil is the lifeblood of our economy. So a vital question must be -- how vulnerable is New Zealand to oil supply shocks? -- Whether from short term disruption, or due to an on-going and perhaps permanent decline in world oil exports?

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New Zealand Government's Oil Price Projections - A Bad Joke?

The Ministry of Economic Developments oil price estimates are a very bad joke. It is a joke on all of us however, as their grossly optimistic projections underpin government policy not just for energy but for the broader economy.

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UK Government to Develop Oil Shock Response Plan - When Will NZ ?

UK Energy and Climate Change Secretary Chris Huhne has agreed to develop an 'Oil Shock Response Plan', following a meeting with the UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security (ITPOES).

Specifically, Huhne agreed that the UK government and ITPOES would work together on peak oil threat assessment and contingency planning.

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New Zealand Joins Peak Oil Club - IEA

The International Energy Agency has published it's “New Zealand Energy Review 2010" which confirms that New Zealand's oil and gas production has peaked and will enter a period of rapid decline. This was exactly the conclusion I reached in my earlier posts in January 2011 regarding the Venture Taranaki report, and the presentation by Dr Peter Crabtree of the Ministry of Economic Development to the Petroleum Conference in November 2010

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Government’s Energy Strategy -- Grade F for Fail

The government has mistakenly released its Draft Energy Strategy, which is still to be signed off by Cabinet. Despite hundreds of public submissions it remains almost word for word identical with the version published in July 2010.

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