Australian government tries to hide its own peak oil report

The Daily Telegraph has revealed how the Australian government has attempted to suppress its own report on peak oil. The response from the New Zealand government had been equally secretive and obfuscating.

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Election 2011 Two-facedness - Saving money good - saving fuel bad

All of the political parties agree New Zealand needs a long-term savings and investment plan . These elections there have been major policy announcements on Kiwisaver, reducing debt and the age of eligibility for National Superannuation. Saving money good.

But when confronted with arguably a more serious and immediate threat to New Zealand's economy, national well-being and security -- namely our dangerous exposure to oil price shocks, and oil supply disruptions and shortages, - all the main parties fail to articulate a coherent long-term plan to lower our dependence on ever more expensive imported oil. Saving fuel bad.

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Officials Muzzled on Peak Oil?

The government has finally released its Energy Strategy. There are cosmetic changes from the Draft version but it's no surprise that the final Strategy continues to completely ignore the threat of peak oil. 

There were many submissions, including my own, which detailed the raft of recent reports from oil and energy experts, think tanks and government institutions which are all pointing to an imminent supply and oil price crunch. And in 2009 government officials themselves gave strong warnings to Ministers. So since 2009, have the officials been muzzled?

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New Zealand at greater risk from oil shocks -- official advice ignored

In November 2009 senior officials warned the government --

• the risks of oil price shocks and a physical shortfall in the world supply are issues of "strategic importance"
• New Zealand is more vulnerable and may suffer more than other OECD economies
• new technologies and fuels will only "marginally" reduce New Zealand's vulnerability to these oil supply/price risks
• without "sufficient incentives" New Zealand's resilience will decrease even further
• a substantial increases in domestic oil production will not insulate New Zealand from higher oil prices because oil is traded internationally and we would still pay the international price.

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Even more pain at the pump this year

I am usually loathe to predict what oil prices will do, certainly in the long term. As Yogi Berra famously said "it's hard to make predictions, especially about the future". But some pretty compelling evidence suggests another substantial upward tick in the oil price is coming in the second half of this year - on top of the already damaging current oil price shock.

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UK Ignores Peak Oil Warnings - NZ Pretends It's Not An Issue

It has long been suspected that Western governments have been investigating peak oil and its impacts on the economy, but keeping the information hidden from the public. In the case of the UK government we now have definitive proof that this has been happening. The Guardian has reported (15 June) that UK ministers have ignored peak oil warnings.

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New Zealand's oil security. How dependent are we on oil imports?

New Zealand imports 97% of its oil. Oil is the lifeblood of our economy. So a vital question must be -- how vulnerable is New Zealand to oil supply shocks? -- Whether from short term disruption, or due to an on-going and perhaps permanent decline in world oil exports?

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NZ Budget 2011 Ignores Oil Shock Impacts

The Times [article behind a paywall] has just broken a story that the UK government has been undertaking research on the likely adverse effects on their economy of an oil price spike.
The Times reports that

"A sudden huge increase in oil prices would cut more than £102 billion from the economy over the next five years, wrecking Britain's economic recovery, increasing unemployment and provoking industrial action, according to government research."

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IMF Warns of Oil Scarcity And End of "Growth"

What is going on? The International Monetary Fund -- a body that states its mission is to "foster global growth and economic stability" has produced a major report which concludes the world has entered an era of oil scarcity, and openly discusses a peak oil scenario in which global GDP doesn't grow, but declines steeply !

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Next oil induced recession -- are we there yet?

Research in the US confirms that there is a strong correlation between high oil prices and recessions. Recessions emerge when oil prices reach around $US85 a barrel (currently $US115 a barrel) or when the aggregate cost of oil for the nation equals 5.5% of GDP.

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Earthquake $NZ5 Billion – Oil Quake More?

The Christchurch earthquake is estimated to cost the government $5 billion in tax revenue. GDP will fall by 1.5% in 2011, as a result of the quake alone.

While attention is understandably focused on Christchurch, an oil quake is beginning to shake the foundations of New Zealand's economy. The economic impact of an oil shock (or series of shocks) could well prove to be substantially greater, and more long-lasting than those arising from the Christchurch quake.

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Dunedin City Leads on Peak Oil

In a first for NZ, Dunedin City Council has commissioned a Peak Oil Vulnerability Analysis Report, which included surveys on travel habits, private fuel consumption and vehicle dependence and the effect of petrol prices . Appendices to the Report here

It assesses the city’s vulnerability to increased fuel prices and reduced availability of oil. It helps identify the associated challenges and opportunities for Dunedin’s communities.

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Keynote speaker at NZ Petroleum Conference confirms peak oil and warns of economic collapse

Farouk Al-Kasim. a Norwegian oil expert, was a invited by the NZ government to be a keynote speaker at the NZ Petroleum Conference.  But in an interview on Radio NZ with Kim Hill, he rained on the government's parade big time, stating that we have already reached global peak oil.  He also said that higher oil prices and oil scarcity will mean global recession and possibly economic collapse.

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Peak Oil Could Halve NZ's Economy - says Report

Two Canterbury University academics have analysed the impact of fuel restraint (peak oil) on New Zealand's economy.

Their alarming conclusion is that with just 10% less fuel available, New Zealand's economy would shrink by around  $115 billion in just five years. If a 10% fuel restraint continued for 20 years, New Zealand economy would shrink by $412 billion compared to a business as usual scenario. 

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