Peak Oil’s Economic Pain Is Trumps

Oil’s tipping point has passed, and the economic pain of a flattening supply will trump the environment as a reason to curb the use of fossil fuels, say James Murray and David King, in an article just published in the prestigious journal Nature.

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Public Receptive to Peak Oil Debate and Policy Ideas - Survey

It's a common misconception that only "greenies" and "doomsters" are concerned about peak oil. This view perhaps explains why politicians and the mainstream media have marginalised or ignored the issue. However a recent US survey of public opinion reveals that, in fact, those Americans who identify themselves as "very conservative" politically or who are "strongly dismissive" of climate change are among those most concerned that rising fuel prices are harmful to the economy and public health.

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Even more pain at the pump this year

I am usually loathe to predict what oil prices will do, certainly in the long term. As Yogi Berra famously said "it's hard to make predictions, especially about the future". But some pretty compelling evidence suggests another substantial upward tick in the oil price is coming in the second half of this year - on top of the already damaging current oil price shock.

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High oil prices cause "large" effect on inflation - NZ Report

A 2005 study by New Zealand Reserve Bank economist Felix Delbruck ("Oil prices and the New Zealand economy" - Reserve Bank of New Zealand: Bulletin, Vol. 68, No. 4) has found that the inflationary effects of higher oil prices were "quite large". Specifically that :-

• the direct impact of a $.10c a litre increase in petrol price lead to an immediate increase in the average household's living cost of about 0.3%
• the indirect effect (of higher bus, taxi, train and air travel, and firms passing on higher transport costs which raised the cost of food etc) added another 0.3% onto the direct effect -- a total 0.6% increase in the CPI for every $.10c a litre increase in fuel. 

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Oil Price Response Plan For New Zealand Ignored

Prime Minister John Key's only response to rapidly rising oil prices has been to say "the government is powerless - there is nothing we can do". Not so. A 2008 report commissioned by the New Zealand Transport Authority sets out a comprehensive blueprint as to how both central and local government can at low cost, reduce New Zealand's dependence on imported oil, with huge economic benefits to the economy and consumers. The independent report is entitled "Managing Transport Challenges When Oil Prices Rise".

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