2007-08 oil shock caused "substantial" decline in New Zealand's GDP say Reserve Bank economists

In a recent report, two New Zealand Reserve Bank economists have estimated the real effects of oil price shocks on New Zealand’s GDP. The economists conclude --

1. a 5% permanent increase in retail fuel prices implies a decline in NZ's GDP of 0.3%
2. a succession of oil price shocks such as those in 2007-08 had "a substantial effect on real GDP in New Zealand"
3. New Zealand's oil use is different, leaving us more vulnerable to oil shocks. Faced with oil shocks New Zealand households and firms have only one third of the ability to lower the amount of oil they consume, compared with the United States.
4. real wages decline in response to an oil shock, as they are eroded by inflation.

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Obama’s Oil Plan Picks Winners – We Can Do That

Last week President Obama released a new Oil Strategy. Like every President before him since Richard Nixon, Obama's aim is to reduce America’s dependence on imported oil. The plan openly picks winners. The strategy has been widely criticised for failing to address the scale and urgency of the end of cheap and abundant oil. But at least it’s a plan, which is 100 steps ahead of where we are here in New Zealand, -  a nation even more dependent on imported oil than the USA.  The New Zealand government has no plan other than to leave it to the market.

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