This does not compute

The International Energy Agency has again warned that the high oil price could strangle hopes for a global economic recovery. It also says that 90% of future growth in oil production has to come from the Mid-East, mostly from Saudi Arabia. Without a $100 billion annual investment in that region, oil prices will exceed $150 a barrel. But Saudi Arabia has just announced it is halting its $100 billion oil expansion program? This does not compute.

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Christchurch quake cost added to our yearly oil import bill?

By 2015 New Zealand could face an extra $10 billion cost each year to import oil, compared to 2011 prices. That's more than the cost to government of the Christchurch earthquake each and every year! By 2020 the oil import cost each year could soar to $19 billion more than the present cost. That's the bill for two Christchurch earthquakes every year.

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New Zealand Government’s Response to Peak Oil – In time we hope something will turn up

On July 8 I attended a forum on peak oil organised by the Sustainability Society. Dr Richard Hawke from the Ministry of Economic Development gave a presentation  on behalf of the New Zealand government entitled "Peak Oil - New Zealand's Response". I came away with emotions ranging from frustration to anger and embarrassment.

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Even more pain at the pump this year

I am usually loathe to predict what oil prices will do, certainly in the long term. As Yogi Berra famously said "it's hard to make predictions, especially about the future". But some pretty compelling evidence suggests another substantial upward tick in the oil price is coming in the second half of this year - on top of the already damaging current oil price shock.

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Oil Shock Horror blog -- the story thus far

9 months after a tentative start last September, and with 45 posts clocked up here at Oil Shock Horror Probe, I thought it was time to re-cap. What are the trends and themes that have emerged so far?

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New Zealand Government's Oil Price Projections - A Bad Joke?

The Ministry of Economic Developments oil price estimates are a very bad joke. It is a joke on all of us however, as their grossly optimistic projections underpin government policy not just for energy but for the broader economy.

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Next oil induced recession -- are we there yet?

Research in the US confirms that there is a strong correlation between high oil prices and recessions. Recessions emerge when oil prices reach around $US85 a barrel (currently $US115 a barrel) or when the aggregate cost of oil for the nation equals 5.5% of GDP.

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Oil Price Response Plan For New Zealand Ignored

Prime Minister John Key's only response to rapidly rising oil prices has been to say "the government is powerless - there is nothing we can do". Not so. A 2008 report commissioned by the New Zealand Transport Authority sets out a comprehensive blueprint as to how both central and local government can at low cost, reduce New Zealand's dependence on imported oil, with huge economic benefits to the economy and consumers. The independent report is entitled "Managing Transport Challenges When Oil Prices Rise".

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Earthquake $NZ5 Billion – Oil Quake More?

The Christchurch earthquake is estimated to cost the government $5 billion in tax revenue. GDP will fall by 1.5% in 2011, as a result of the quake alone.

While attention is understandably focused on Christchurch, an oil quake is beginning to shake the foundations of New Zealand's economy. The economic impact of an oil shock (or series of shocks) could well prove to be substantially greater, and more long-lasting than those arising from the Christchurch quake.

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Oil prices were rising steeply before the unrest in the Middle East

Here is the best analysis I have found about what’s been happening on the global oil scene.

It also confirms that peak oil pundits like Canadian economist Jeff Rubin, and Richard Heinberg and dozens of others, have been uncannily accurate.

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Starting to Join the Dots .... finally

Suddenly the world's media is awash with concern that the recent rise in oil prices will stall economic growth worldwide and cause another global recession. Guardian and here  BBC  Wall Street Journal

Finally, even in New Zealand, Brian Fallow economic commentator for the New Zealand Herald expresses concern about the implications for the New Zealand economy from rapidly rising oil prices.

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NZ Defence Report Ignores Peak Oil - US / German Military Warn it’s a Big Threat

The just released Defence White Paper on New Zealand's strategic and security interests to 2025, as Gordon Campbell points out, is long on rhetoric, and short on coherence and detail.  But worse still it fails to even mention a very serious and imminent threat to our security which both the US and German military have warned about - namely the peaking of global oil production leading to dwindling world oil supplies.

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NZ Hits Peak Oil in 2010. Zero oil production by 2023 -- MED official

This year NZ reaches peak oil.  We then face a steep decline in our domestic oil production from currently producing oilfields. This is a double jeopardy for New Zealand's economy as the domestic decline will coincide with global oil supply shocks, rapidly rising oil prices, ushering in a period of sustained recessions - according to a New Zealand Parliament report published last month.

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Mining group believes in tooth fairy -- "New Zealand cushioned against oil shocks"

Straterra, a body representing mining companies has said, "New Zealand is in an excellent position to withstand any future oil shocks, thanks in particular to our lignite and geothermal resources". Straterra was commenting on the Parliament's research unit report called "The Next Oil Shock".  The Report says major international organisations are warning of another supply crunch as soon as 2012.

What planet are these guys on ? Let's be clear -- geo-thermal energy produces electricity. It cannot power New Zealand's internal transport system - or carry our imports and exports -- 99% of which relies on liquid fuels. If our transport systems cannot run efficiently the economy heads south into recession.

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NZ Parliament Report Warns of Imminent Oil Shock

New Zealand is highly vulnerable to oil price shocks that are nearly certain to occur in the next few years according to a research report published by Parliament yesterday. Its an excellent report on peak oil and will be huge wake-up call for government and opposition MP's and their advisers.  It deserves the widest circulation.

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"Peak hype" on New Zealand's offshore oil reserves

There was much hype and hoopla at the recent New Zealand Petroleum Conference about the extent of New Zealand's potential oil and gas reserves. Chris Uruski, a GNS scientist told Chris Laidlaw on Radio NZ's Sunday that we potentially have 20 billion barrels of oil equivalent in New Zealand's offshore exclusive economic zone. He did however put something of a dampener on the excitement by stating "we haven't really got anything sorted on a scientific basis" as to the extent of our oil reserves.

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UK Govt Takes Peak Oil Threat Seriously, but NZ Govt Deep in Denial

The UK's Energy Secretary Chris Huhne has ordered his officials to look at the impact of a 1970s-style oil price spike on the British economy. Mr Huhne warned that a  1970s-style doubling in the price of oil would drain £45billion from the UK economy in two years, hitting investment and jobs. 

Meanwhile our Energy Minister Gerry Brownlee and the NZ government are deep in denial about peak oil and resulting higher oil prices.

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