(Un) Economic Peak Oil is what really matters

In several of my recent posts, such as here, here, and here, I have argued that concentrating on the geological peak of oil production is a distraction. What really counts are the severe economic implications for New Zealand and the world economy as oil prices trend upwards and become more volatile. And I have highlighted the substantial impacts on our economy even without global oil production actually peaking, or declining. Production being on a plateau since 2005 has been sufficient.

Read more »

Officials Muzzled on Peak Oil?

The government has finally released its Energy Strategy. There are cosmetic changes from the Draft version but it's no surprise that the final Strategy continues to completely ignore the threat of peak oil. 

There were many submissions, including my own, which detailed the raft of recent reports from oil and energy experts, think tanks and government institutions which are all pointing to an imminent supply and oil price crunch. And in 2009 government officials themselves gave strong warnings to Ministers. So since 2009, have the officials been muzzled?

Read more »

Oil Royalties a Mirage?

Beside the release of the government's final Energy Strategy was a report from Woodward Partners purporting to estimate the potential royalty income from existing, and yet to be discovered oilfields.

Business cheerleaders such as the National Business Review typically took the most extreme best case guesstimate and trumpeted the report with headlines of a $13 billion bonanza. But if they had bothered to actually read the report they would find that quite different story emerges.

Read more »

Christchurch quake cost added to our yearly oil import bill?

By 2015 New Zealand could face an extra $10 billion cost each year to import oil, compared to 2011 prices. That's more than the cost to government of the Christchurch earthquake each and every year! By 2020 the oil import cost each year could soar to $19 billion more than the present cost. That's the bill for two Christchurch earthquakes every year.

Read more »

New Zealand at greater risk from oil shocks -- official advice ignored

In November 2009 senior officials warned the government --

• the risks of oil price shocks and a physical shortfall in the world supply are issues of "strategic importance"
• New Zealand is more vulnerable and may suffer more than other OECD economies
• new technologies and fuels will only "marginally" reduce New Zealand's vulnerability to these oil supply/price risks
• without "sufficient incentives" New Zealand's resilience will decrease even further
• a substantial increases in domestic oil production will not insulate New Zealand from higher oil prices because oil is traded internationally and we would still pay the international price.

Read more »

Public Receptive to Peak Oil Debate and Policy Ideas - Survey

It's a common misconception that only "greenies" and "doomsters" are concerned about peak oil. This view perhaps explains why politicians and the mainstream media have marginalised or ignored the issue. However a recent US survey of public opinion reveals that, in fact, those Americans who identify themselves as "very conservative" politically or who are "strongly dismissive" of climate change are among those most concerned that rising fuel prices are harmful to the economy and public health.

Read more »

New Zealand’s Tui Oil Field. - Peak Oil With Bells On

One of the least understood elements of peak oil is the rapid decline rate of production from the peak for any given oil field. For an example of just how severe and steep the decline rate can be, look no further than the recent announcement that the Tui oil field in the Taranaki Basin has had its remaining oil reserves slashed by 1/5, and that production will fall off a cliff. For a New Zealand oilfield, this is peak oil in action with bells on.

Read more »