2007-08 oil shock caused "substantial" decline in New Zealand's GDP say Reserve Bank economists

In a recent report, two New Zealand Reserve Bank economists have estimated the real effects of oil price shocks on New Zealand’s GDP. The economists conclude --

1. a 5% permanent increase in retail fuel prices implies a decline in NZ's GDP of 0.3%
2. a succession of oil price shocks such as those in 2007-08 had "a substantial effect on real GDP in New Zealand"
3. New Zealand's oil use is different, leaving us more vulnerable to oil shocks. Faced with oil shocks New Zealand households and firms have only one third of the ability to lower the amount of oil they consume, compared with the United States.
4. real wages decline in response to an oil shock, as they are eroded by inflation.

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UK Ignores Peak Oil Warnings - NZ Pretends It's Not An Issue

It has long been suspected that Western governments have been investigating peak oil and its impacts on the economy, but keeping the information hidden from the public. In the case of the UK government we now have definitive proof that this has been happening. The Guardian has reported (15 June) that UK ministers have ignored peak oil warnings.

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New Zealand's oil security. How dependent are we on oil imports?

New Zealand imports 97% of its oil. Oil is the lifeblood of our economy. So a vital question must be -- how vulnerable is New Zealand to oil supply shocks? -- Whether from short term disruption, or due to an on-going and perhaps permanent decline in world oil exports?

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New Zealand Government's Oil Price Projections - A Bad Joke?

The Ministry of Economic Developments oil price estimates are a very bad joke. It is a joke on all of us however, as their grossly optimistic projections underpin government policy not just for energy but for the broader economy.

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UK Government to Develop Oil Shock Response Plan - When Will NZ ?

UK Energy and Climate Change Secretary Chris Huhne has agreed to develop an 'Oil Shock Response Plan', following a meeting with the UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security (ITPOES).

Specifically, Huhne agreed that the UK government and ITPOES would work together on peak oil threat assessment and contingency planning.

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NZ Budget 2011 Ignores Oil Shock Impacts

The Times [article behind a paywall] has just broken a story that the UK government has been undertaking research on the likely adverse effects on their economy of an oil price spike.
The Times reports that

"A sudden huge increase in oil prices would cut more than £102 billion from the economy over the next five years, wrecking Britain's economic recovery, increasing unemployment and provoking industrial action, according to government research."

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Must Watch Australian Report on Peak Oil

The Australian Broadcasting Corporation’s Catalyst programme has just broadcast the best peak oil documentary in recent times. In just 12 minutes it covers many of the essential points, and is a great way to get yourself up to speed on peak oil. Please take the time to watch it, and share this Youtube link and the ABC Catalyst link with your networks, and with anyone you believe is unaware of, or in denial about peak oil.

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