Only The Good Oil News

Radio New Zealand has broadcast a news item which typifies the pathological optimism of our media when reporting New Zealand's oil supply.

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Peak Oil’s Economic Pain Is Trumps

Oil’s tipping point has passed, and the economic pain of a flattening supply will trump the environment as a reason to curb the use of fossil fuels, say James Murray and David King, in an article just published in the prestigious journal Nature.

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Australian government tries to hide its own peak oil report

The Daily Telegraph has revealed how the Australian government has attempted to suppress its own report on peak oil. The response from the New Zealand government had been equally secretive and obfuscating.

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Will the onset of energy descent force NZ into a steady state economy?

 I wish to share this excellent article by Jack Santa Barbara of Nelson. He explores NZ's unique postion in a world facing an impending energy descent, and asks whether NZ could be the first nation to have a steady state economy.  Full article here

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This does not compute

The International Energy Agency has again warned that the high oil price could strangle hopes for a global economic recovery. It also says that 90% of future growth in oil production has to come from the Mid-East, mostly from Saudi Arabia. Without a $100 billion annual investment in that region, oil prices will exceed $150 a barrel. But Saudi Arabia has just announced it is halting its $100 billion oil expansion program? This does not compute.

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NZ Election 2011 - Praying to the Growth Fairy

I had thought that my next post would be on the surreal lack of policy from any of the political parties in the Election addressing resource depletion and their collective failure to face the reality that "economic growth" is not returning.

Before I could get around to it I read this excellent post from James Henderson at "The Standard", and so I am re-posting it here. 

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Election 2011 Two-facedness - Saving money good - saving fuel bad

All of the political parties agree New Zealand needs a long-term savings and investment plan . These elections there have been major policy announcements on Kiwisaver, reducing debt and the age of eligibility for National Superannuation. Saving money good.

But when confronted with arguably a more serious and immediate threat to New Zealand's economy, national well-being and security -- namely our dangerous exposure to oil price shocks, and oil supply disruptions and shortages, - all the main parties fail to articulate a coherent long-term plan to lower our dependence on ever more expensive imported oil. Saving fuel bad.

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Huge blowout in NZ oil import cost

In the year to September oil imports rose 22% to $7.7 billion. Oil is costing us $1.4 billion more than a year ago.

If this price trend continues then by 2015 our annual oil import bill will soar to $17 billion and will be $11 billion more than it was in 2010. That annual extra cost will be greater than the government's contribution to the Christchurch earthquake.

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New Foundation to highlight peak oil and end of growth

When I started writing this blog over a year ago, I stated my motivation was “to probe, raise awareness, encourage informed debate, and look at community responses.” But it’s often felt like I was a lonely voice in the wilderness. How come almost no one else in New Zealand – even in the blogosphere - was commenting on peak oil and its huge economic implications for our nation? How come there was not even a nascent entity or group taking up the challenge of informing the public, and generating debate that would hopefully seep into the mainstream media?

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Peak oil, recessions and the end of growth

On Tuesday I gave a presentation to Auckland University students on "Peak oil, recessions and the end of growth"

The event was organised by AIESEC , the world's largest youth run non profit organisation.

The powerpoint version is available here

to view the video on slide 24 see here

The .pdf version is here

When might New Zealand's oil imports dry up?

A Guest Post by Nigel Williams

There is a set of questions that we can never know the answer to except in hindsight. Questions like:- “How long do I have before I cannot afford to buy fuel?” “How long do I have before there is no oil in the tank of my car?” “How long do I have before there are no diesel-powered trucks running on roads bringing food to my supermarket’s shelves?”

The answers to these will be different for each one of us, possibly by many years.

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(Un) Economic Peak Oil is what really matters

In several of my recent posts, such as here, here, and here, I have argued that concentrating on the geological peak of oil production is a distraction. What really counts are the severe economic implications for New Zealand and the world economy as oil prices trend upwards and become more volatile. And I have highlighted the substantial impacts on our economy even without global oil production actually peaking, or declining. Production being on a plateau since 2005 has been sufficient.

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Officials Muzzled on Peak Oil?

The government has finally released its Energy Strategy. There are cosmetic changes from the Draft version but it's no surprise that the final Strategy continues to completely ignore the threat of peak oil. 

There were many submissions, including my own, which detailed the raft of recent reports from oil and energy experts, think tanks and government institutions which are all pointing to an imminent supply and oil price crunch. And in 2009 government officials themselves gave strong warnings to Ministers. So since 2009, have the officials been muzzled?

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Oil Royalties a Mirage?

Beside the release of the government's final Energy Strategy was a report from Woodward Partners purporting to estimate the potential royalty income from existing, and yet to be discovered oilfields.

Business cheerleaders such as the National Business Review typically took the most extreme best case guesstimate and trumpeted the report with headlines of a $13 billion bonanza. But if they had bothered to actually read the report they would find that quite different story emerges.

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Christchurch quake cost added to our yearly oil import bill?

By 2015 New Zealand could face an extra $10 billion cost each year to import oil, compared to 2011 prices. That's more than the cost to government of the Christchurch earthquake each and every year! By 2020 the oil import cost each year could soar to $19 billion more than the present cost. That's the bill for two Christchurch earthquakes every year.

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New Zealand at greater risk from oil shocks -- official advice ignored

In November 2009 senior officials warned the government --

• the risks of oil price shocks and a physical shortfall in the world supply are issues of "strategic importance"
• New Zealand is more vulnerable and may suffer more than other OECD economies
• new technologies and fuels will only "marginally" reduce New Zealand's vulnerability to these oil supply/price risks
• without "sufficient incentives" New Zealand's resilience will decrease even further
• a substantial increases in domestic oil production will not insulate New Zealand from higher oil prices because oil is traded internationally and we would still pay the international price.

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Public Receptive to Peak Oil Debate and Policy Ideas - Survey

It's a common misconception that only "greenies" and "doomsters" are concerned about peak oil. This view perhaps explains why politicians and the mainstream media have marginalised or ignored the issue. However a recent US survey of public opinion reveals that, in fact, those Americans who identify themselves as "very conservative" politically or who are "strongly dismissive" of climate change are among those most concerned that rising fuel prices are harmful to the economy and public health.

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New Zealand’s Tui Oil Field. - Peak Oil With Bells On

One of the least understood elements of peak oil is the rapid decline rate of production from the peak for any given oil field. For an example of just how severe and steep the decline rate can be, look no further than the recent announcement that the Tui oil field in the Taranaki Basin has had its remaining oil reserves slashed by 1/5, and that production will fall off a cliff. For a New Zealand oilfield, this is peak oil in action with bells on.

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New Zealand Government’s Response to Peak Oil – In time we hope something will turn up

On July 8 I attended a forum on peak oil organised by the Sustainability Society. Dr Richard Hawke from the Ministry of Economic Development gave a presentation  on behalf of the New Zealand government entitled "Peak Oil - New Zealand's Response". I came away with emotions ranging from frustration to anger and embarrassment.

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Even more pain at the pump this year

I am usually loathe to predict what oil prices will do, certainly in the long term. As Yogi Berra famously said "it's hard to make predictions, especially about the future". But some pretty compelling evidence suggests another substantial upward tick in the oil price is coming in the second half of this year - on top of the already damaging current oil price shock.

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