This does not compute

The International Energy Agency has again warned that the high oil price could strangle hopes for a global economic recovery. It also says that 90% of future growth in oil production has to come from the Mid-East, mostly from Saudi Arabia. Without a $100 billion annual investment in that region, oil prices will exceed $150 a barrel. But Saudi Arabia has just announced it is halting its $100 billion oil expansion program? This does not compute.

Read more »

NZ Election 2011 - Praying to the Growth Fairy

I had thought that my next post would be on the surreal lack of policy from any of the political parties in the Election addressing resource depletion and their collective failure to face the reality that "economic growth" is not returning.

Before I could get around to it I read this excellent post from James Henderson at "The Standard", and so I am re-posting it here. 

Read more »

Election 2011 Two-facedness - Saving money good - saving fuel bad

All of the political parties agree New Zealand needs a long-term savings and investment plan . These elections there have been major policy announcements on Kiwisaver, reducing debt and the age of eligibility for National Superannuation. Saving money good.

But when confronted with arguably a more serious and immediate threat to New Zealand's economy, national well-being and security -- namely our dangerous exposure to oil price shocks, and oil supply disruptions and shortages, - all the main parties fail to articulate a coherent long-term plan to lower our dependence on ever more expensive imported oil. Saving fuel bad.

Read more »

Huge blowout in NZ oil import cost

In the year to September oil imports rose 22% to $7.7 billion. Oil is costing us $1.4 billion more than a year ago.

If this price trend continues then by 2015 our annual oil import bill will soar to $17 billion and will be $11 billion more than it was in 2010. That annual extra cost will be greater than the government's contribution to the Christchurch earthquake.

Read more »

New Foundation to highlight peak oil and end of growth

When I started writing this blog over a year ago, I stated my motivation was “to probe, raise awareness, encourage informed debate, and look at community responses.” But it’s often felt like I was a lonely voice in the wilderness. How come almost no one else in New Zealand – even in the blogosphere - was commenting on peak oil and its huge economic implications for our nation? How come there was not even a nascent entity or group taking up the challenge of informing the public, and generating debate that would hopefully seep into the mainstream media?

Read more »

Peak oil, recessions and the end of growth

On Tuesday I gave a presentation to Auckland University students on "Peak oil, recessions and the end of growth"

The event was organised by AIESEC , the world's largest youth run non profit organisation.

The powerpoint version is available here

to view the video on slide 24 see here

The .pdf version is here

When might New Zealand's oil imports dry up?

A Guest Post by Nigel Williams

There is a set of questions that we can never know the answer to except in hindsight. Questions like:- “How long do I have before I cannot afford to buy fuel?” “How long do I have before there is no oil in the tank of my car?” “How long do I have before there are no diesel-powered trucks running on roads bringing food to my supermarket’s shelves?”

The answers to these will be different for each one of us, possibly by many years.

Read more »